Deadline Day
Were United Right to Hold Fire?
The transfer window is closed and United made no signings. The deadline passed at 7pm. The phones stayed quiet. Michael Carrick, asked on Friday whether he was concerned about squad depth, said he was 'pretty calm' about the whole thing. The club’s position, relayed through the usual briefings: the switch to a back four has reduced the need for defensive reinforcement. They’re waiting for the right midfielders in the summer. Three consecutive wins have vindicated patience.
Standing still is still a choice. And it is worth examining whether this is strategic discipline or something closer to negligence dressed in smart clothes.
United’s January can be summarised swiftly. No senior players in. The only confirmed business: Ethan Wheatley loaned to Bradford City, Jacob Devaney to St Mirren, James Scanlon to Swindon Town. Sekou Kone, the promising young midfielder, is expected to join Ineos-owned Lausanne-Sport on loan, though the Swiss window remains open until 16 February so there is no rush.
Joshua Zirkzee stays despite Roma’s interest. Manuel Ugarte stays despite loan enquiries from Europe. Both will probably leave in the summer, but for now they remain - unused options rather than active contributors.
The headline from the window was Antoine Semenyo, though United’s pursuit was so long ago that it’s largely been memory-holed. United wanted him last summer. Ruben Amorim and Jason Wilcox dined with him in London, selling the project, building the relationship. But then the club offered him a salary significantly lower than Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha were earning. Semenyo took offence. Bournemouth persuaded him to sign a new contract with a £65m release clause active for the first 10 days of January.
When United came back in January, Semenyo was in no rush to answer the calls. He chose Manchester City instead - £65m, immediate integration, three goals in his first fortnight. The player United identified, courted, and then lowballed is now scoring for the noisy neighbours. The charm offensive ended in self-inflicted humiliation.
Was there also a late attempt to hijack Liverpool’s move for Rennes centre-back Jeremy Jacquet? Maybe. He’d certainly been scouted and there were reports that United tried in the final hours. But Jacquet had already agreed to join Liverpool in the summer for £55m plus add-ons. The medical happened on Merseyside, Monday afternoon.
The £65m that would have gone on Semenyo has been “saved for the summer.” The centre-back United wanted is going elsewhere. The midfield, with Carrick’s options down to the bare bones, is one Casemiro or Kobbie Mainoo injury away from disaster.
The window closes with nothing to show.
Context matters
United’s inactivity looks different when framed against their rivals.
City signed Semenyo and Marc Guehi, the latter on a £20 million fee for a 25-year-old England international with six months left on his contract. Liverpool had been circling for months, expecting to sign him on a free in the summer. City moved decisively in January, exploiting the short contract to get a deal done that might have been difficult later. “I’m pretty sure if he had a long contract at Crystal Palace it would have been impossible,” Pep Guardiola crowed.
City saw a problem - injuries to Ruben Dias and Josko Gvardiol left them starting Abdukodir Khusanov and Max Alleyne, aged 21 and 20, in consecutive Premier League games - and solved it immediately.
Semenyo has already hit the ground running. Guehi started against Wolves within days of signing and was assured throughout. Oscar Bobb was sold to Fulham for £27m, recouping some of the outlay. The title race remains alive partly because City, still waiting on 115 charges for industrialised financial corruption, refused to sit on their hands - and enjoy unlimited state wealth.
Liverpool agreed a deal for Jacquet, securing their long-term centre-back future as Ibrahima Konate’s contract situation drags on and Virgil van Dijk embarrasses himself week over week. They tried to bring Lutsharel Geertruida from Sunderland on loan too - blocked because Sunderland couldn’t find a replacement - but the intent was clear. Arne Slot wanted reinforcements, pushed for them, and will get the main target in June.
Chelsea released Raheem Sterling by mutual consent and lost the Jacquet race but otherwise stayed quiet - but they had already reshuffled significantly following Enzo Maresca’s departure. Arsenal made only outgoing loans, such as Ethan Nwaneri to Marseille and Oleksandr Zinchenko to Ajax, but Mikel Arteta’s team are six points clear at the top. They can afford patience.
Tottenham signed Conor Gallagher from Atlético Madrid, giving Thomas Frank the midfield reinforcement he needed.
United? Nothing. The club that finished 15th last season, sacked their manager three weeks ago, are now fourth on the back of three wins under an interim coach, decided that this was the moment for restraint.
The case for restraint
It’s not absurd. Carrick has won three from three. City, Arsenal, Fulham - the quality of opposition was high and the results were emphatic. The 2-0 win over City was United’s first derby victory at Old Trafford since January 2023. The 3-2 win at Arsenal was the club’s first away league victory over the Gunners since December 2017. The dramatic 3-2 against Fulham, with Sesko’s 94th-minute winner, showed a resilience that had been absent much of the season.
The tactical shift has been simple but transformative. Carrick ditched Amorim’s 3-4-3 and reverted to a 4-2-3-1. The back four works. Bruno Fernandes, liberated from Amorim’s deeper position, is thriving in a natural number 10 role. Kobbie Mainoo, ignored by Amorim all season and not started in any Premier League game before Carrick’s arrival, has started every game under the new coach and looked excellent.
Casemiro, written off repeatedly, has been United’s best midfielder in all three matches. Against Fulham he headed in the opener, played a no-look pass for Cunha’s goal, and controlled the game. Benjamin Sesko, the £65m summer signing who was in and out of the team under Amorim, found himself on the bench for all three of Carrick’s games, but came on as a substitute in each - scored against Fulham, played a key part in Cunha’s goal against Arsenal. His three goals in his last four appearances have come after a barren spell that had some questioning the transfer.
Why disrupt something that is working? Especially if it’s to buy a player that’s not already on United’s transfer wish-list.
The club’s position, briefed widely: no short-term approach to signings. The summer window allows a coherent rebuild under a permanent manager. Panic buys now would complicate the next coach’s job. Better to wait, assess, and act with clarity than to throw money at problems that might not exist by May.
Carrick, on Friday: “Never say never of course, because a lot can happen and situations can be thrown up. Sometimes it’s in our control, sometimes it’s maybe something that’s out of our control that we’ve got to deal with. But I’m pretty calm about it.”
United are now on 41 points after yesterday’s win. Chelsea a point behind, Liverpool two. Champions League football is achievable with the current squad - if everyone stays fit.
But that final clause is doing a lot of work.
The counter-argument writes itself
Casemiro is leaving in June. Confirmed. He announced it himself last month, a dignified farewell that acknowledged the end was coming. The Brazilian has been magnificent under Carrick, but he will not be here next season. Central midfield depth behind him: Mainoo, 20, promising but still developing; Ugarte, out of his depth, a £50m signing who has made no impact; Bruno, who can move back in an emergency, but that must only be in an emergency. One injury to Mainoo or Casemiro and United’s chances of making the Champions League diminish.
Mainoo is now being asked to start every game from here until May with no viable alternative. Casemiro can sustain 60 to 70 minutes once a week. Fortunately there are only two midweek matches among the 14 remaining.
In Amorim’s 14 months, United scored zero goals from substitutes in the Premier League. Under Carrick, Cunha and Sesko have both scored as replacements - but both are forwards.
In midfield, there is no cavalry.
Patrick Dorgu picked up an injury against Arsenal. Cunha came in and scored against Fulham, but cover remains thin elsewhere.
In defence, Matthijs de Ligt is still out. Harry Maguire only just returned from a hamstring injury that kept him sidelined since November. Noussair Mazraoui missed three games while at the Africa Cup of Nations with Morocco, reaching the final against Senegal. He wouldn’t feature at centre-back in a back four. No new centre-back was added despite the late interest in Jacquet. All to say, the back four that Carrick has stabilised could be destabilised by an injury to Maguire or Lisandro Martinez.
United also have form for underinvesting in January and paying for it in the spring. The Semenyo situation is familiar - a player the club identified, courted, and then lost in part through their own lowball offer. He is now banging in goals for City while United work out how to get the best out of a forward group overstocked with players bought for Amorim’s narrow system.
That money has been “saved for the summer” when United will go after top-quality central midfielders. But summer is four months away. A lot can go wrong between now and then. If Mainoo gets injured in March and United drop out of the top four with no midfield options, the restraint will look less like discipline and more like managed negligence.
What kind of club?
The Casemiro situation deserves its own examination. It encapsulates the tension at the heart of this window.
He announced his departure. He is 33 years old and the club’s best earner. The club have briefed that they will not try to persuade him to stay - and the bean counters won’t be unhappy at another step towards restructuring the club’s wage bill.
“Manchester United are determined not to have a short-term approach to signings and managers,” mused a reporter on Sky. The principle is clear: move on from ageing players, build for the future, don’t get sentimental. Fair enough.
But Casemiro is currently the best central midfielder at the club. In all three of Carrick’s wins, he has been key. His passing range, his positioning, his leadership on the pitch, the ability to be a weapon from set-pieces - all have been outstanding. If he maintains this form until May, he will be in the running for United's player of the year. And then he'll leave. That's the absurdity of it.
Does ideology trump practicality? The principle of moving on from veterans clashes with the reality of what United are going to lose - whether in the summer or sooner if the unfortunate happens. Letting him go makes long-term sense. Not signing anyone in January to ease the transition, or ensure there’s enough depth, is the gamble. It assumes that if the worst happens Ugarte rediscovers some form, any form. That’s a big assumption.
The deeper question is what kind of club the owners want United to be.
They have talked about discipline, structure, patience, long-term planning. “Walk to the right decision, don’t run to the wrong one.” The buzzwords have been deployed repeatedly since Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s arrival. This window was a test of that rhetoric in the post-Amorim era. The manager who clashed with the recruitment department, who said publicly that he wanted to be “the manager, not the coach” and told the scouting department to “do their jobs,” is gone. The interim coach has steadied the ship. The question becomes: what now?
Did Ineos pass the test? Or did they get lucky that Carrick’s start papered over the cracks?
The permanent manager, whoever that turns out to be, will inherit this squad in the summer. Then there’ll be some spending. How much depends on European football - and what the new man wants.
The names floated are serious: Thomas Tuchel, managing England, with a World Cup campaign to complete; Luis Enrique, perhaps, maybe, possibly leaving PSG; Julian Nagelsmann, leading Germany into the same World Cup; Mauricio Pochettino, managing the USA as hosts.
Jamie Carragher, Roy Keane, a myriad of wannabe pundits, have said they wouldn’t back Carrick for the permanent role, arguing that United need someone “special” to win the league. The club have briefed that they prefer to wait until summer rather than appoint mid-season, giving them access to coaches committed to World Cup campaigns, or out of contract this June.
Will the next manager thank the club for patience? Will they appreciate a clean slate, no panic buys, no complications from January signings that don’t fit the new coach’s system? Or will they curse a window where City added two Premier League starters and United added nobody and dropped out of European contention with a poorly-timed spate of injuries?
United’s narrative: we will not be bullied by the market and will only buy now who we would have wanted in the summer. City’s narrative: identify what you need, go get it, improve immediately.
Both approaches have merit. But one has delivered consistent trophies and the other has delivered soundbites about long-term thinking.
United have made a choice
February’s remaining fixtures offer a test. Tottenham at home on 7 February. West Ham away three days later. Everton away on the 23rd. Crystal Palace at home on the 28th. All are winnable. None are guaranteed.
If Carrick extends the run - five wins, six wins, seven - then the decision to hold fire will look inspired. The squad was good enough. The faith was rewarded. The summer rebuild can proceed from a position of strength, with Champions League football secured and the next permanent manager inheriting a confident group.
If results turn, an injury to a key player, a dip in form, a couple of defeats that open a gap to fourth or fifth place - the questions will return with force. Why did United do nothing when others were active? Why was no midfield cover signed when Casemiro’s departure is already confirmed? Why did the club trust a squad this thin to hold its nerve across four months?
There is no false certainty available here. The gamble could pay off. Carrick might maintain this run. Summer recruitment should be transformative. The permanent manager might arrive with clear ideas and the resources to execute them. Everything Ratcliffe has said about patience and structure might prove correct.
But United are one injury, one bad run, one stumble away from exposing the thinness of this squad. The calm that the club projects looks like confidence now. It might well be. It might also be complacency dressed up in the language of discipline.
The window is closed. United have made their choice. The next few weeks will reveal whether it was restraint - or neglect dressed up as principle.
Thoughtful, intelligent, thorough piece, as always. However, the primary thesis is a sort of narrative based truism. “If things go well, they did the right thing by keeping their powder dry until summer” vs. “if things go poorly, they did the wrong thing by not bringing in winter reinforcements.” It’s difficult to argue that this analysis will prove itself true in the long run, whichever way things go, but the conclusion arrived at is not really about determining whether United’s approach is fundamentally sound, so much as arriving at a (very sound) prediction as to how it will be perceived - by fans, media, rivals, etc - depending on how the rest of the season plays out.
In the end, a truer measure of whether United’s approach in this transfer window was “right” or “wrong” will probably have to wait for longer term results over multiple seasons (assuming they adhere to this same “walk to the right answer, don’t run to the wrong one” philosophy over multiple windows and seasons). Only then can we really determine if it is an approach that laid the foundations for sustained stability and success.
Hi Ed. I think you make some great points. But I’m confused about the Antoine Semenyo non-transfer. I can understand your argument that United should have brought in central midfield cover. But what would have been the point of Semenyo? Where would he have played in Carrick’s team? Who is he an upgrade on?