Really thoughtful piece and the recruitment over coaching argument is spot on. But theres a layer underneath it thats worth pulling out. The most important thing thats happened at United in the last decade isnt Carrick's appointment, its the quiet recalibration of what success actually means. For the first time since Ferguson left the club is treating stability and Champions League qualification as genuinely valuable outcomes rather than as failures dressed up in positive language.
Thats Carricks real advantage and none of his predcessors had it. Ten Hag won two trophies and got sacked because the baseline expectation was still title challenges. Amorim was given three months measured against the same impossible standard. every manager since Moyes inherited the previous managers mess and was judged against a version of United that hasnt existed for over a decade. The gap between institutional expectation and actual capability is what killed all of them. Carrick benefits from that gap finally closing, not because hes better than the others but because the club has finaly stopped pretending its 2008.
The uncomfortable question is whether this recalibrated baseline is a foundation or a ceiling. The Brighton model the piece references is instructive, they cycle managers and maintain competitiveness without ever wining anything. Liverpool won everything under Klopp but thats because they found a generational figure who transcended the system he operated within. Model-first approaches produce consistent 75-80 point seasons. the jump from that to 90 points and a title has historicaly required a manager who is bigger than the model not one who serves it. Carrick can absolutely be the right appointment for the next two years while the boardroom does its work. but the title question eventually requires someone with the capacity to bend the system around their own vision, and thats a different job description entirely.
I’d disagree slightly. Before Carrick came in, stability and Champions League qualification were clearly seen as genuinely valuable outcomes in their own right. To take your example, Ten Hag did win two trophies, as you say, but finishing 8th in his second season meant he fell short of those broader measures of stability and Champions League qualification.
I think the opportunity to run a 15 match audition with a new manager is just priceless. If only we could have done that with some of our previous appointments.
Amorim wouldn't have made it, 15 matches would have been long enough to see that his system was incompatible with the players we had. Ten Hag would have been gone because he only made things work by abandoning the playing style we hired him for. And we could all see from day one that Moyes was not the Ferguson successor we wanted him to be. Being Scottish was literally the only thing those two had in common. But anyway Carrick definitely passes. He won't be a disaster, we can be confident of that.
Great read, and I totally agree. Carrick seems to me a young, English Ancellotti, in the sense that he just makes obvious selections, picks players in their best positions, and keeps a happy atmosphere in camp. I'm not sure Carletto's ever done much more than that, and it's a winning recipe at superclubs. I suspect Carrick is better suited to United than Boro.
My only fear about next season is the extent of the recruitment that's required in midfield. With Casemiro leaving and Ugarte unwanted, Mainoo is left as the only midfielder we're comfortable starting, and as you've said on the podcast, he's not immune to injury. I hear people saying we'll sign one or two midfielders, but with all the extra fixtures it feels to me like we need four. I understand why people want different fullbacks, but I'd be happy with a midfield summer transfer market, much as we had a forward line market last summer.
Personally Carrick isnt for me. I didnt think United were very well coached under Ole with Carrick amd McKenna doimg the cpaching and he has nontrack recprd to speak of. Im also not a fan of Steve Holland coached England teams under Southgate, which Carricks United look eerily like. I personally would have gone for Iraola because fuck it, why not. I dont hate the Carrick hire but i feel we have been here before and suspect Carrick may not last the duration of his new contract. I hope i am wrong.
Unlike Ten Hag and Amorim, Carrick might be the perfect manager to match system to recruitment. Agree with your basic premise that his tactics have been boring, reasonable, unimaginative, etc., but building that way makes more sense than going all-in for the prior managers.
Would actual non-reactionary football literate fans really not get behind Alonso?
I know there's idiots in every large community but I feel like if a genuine United fan was against Alonso they need to give their head a wobble.
That said I left Manchester 15 years ago so I don't exactly have my finger on the pulse of real fans, just reddit morons from Ohio or wherever who call me a plastic for saying signing Ugarte would be a stupid move, so not the best measure.
I know it was right out anyway because he said he'll only ever manage for clubs he played for to not offend fans but Real Madrid are Real Sociedad's rivals after Athletic (more for what they represent historically and politically than in any real footballing sense) and he played for both and managed Madrid...
I'll take Carrick as a sort of low-risk roll to provide a semblance of sanity until we know what's what, but I won't like. I thought the game against Sunderland highlighted an issue that I can't decide is him or bad recruitment... a decent manager should be able cope with the absence of Casemiro against a side of that quality. I know the Prem is unlike the other leagues in sports and there's no bad sides but.... and that said we shouldn't be in the position where a 47yo Casemiro is the keystone to the entire game model.
I am as you also suggest more concerned with the recruitment going forward. I'd be more relaxed if I was in charge 'Cause of some 20 years of wonky mostly mid, frequently bad, sometimes good recruitment... I always expect them to snatch the transfer equivalent of defeat from the jaws of victory.... we'll see how this summer goes... but I guess that's kind of what you said too.
Mostly I'm just honestly glad the season is about to be over. If ever a year as a United fan could represent the word 'bleh' it's this one.
PS: I'll always stand behind my nomination of Alguacil (who is actually out of a job now) because I know I'm right. It's not my fault if my outside-the-box thinking is "too real" for mainstream football and they can't deal with me.
Really thoughtful piece and the recruitment over coaching argument is spot on. But theres a layer underneath it thats worth pulling out. The most important thing thats happened at United in the last decade isnt Carrick's appointment, its the quiet recalibration of what success actually means. For the first time since Ferguson left the club is treating stability and Champions League qualification as genuinely valuable outcomes rather than as failures dressed up in positive language.
Thats Carricks real advantage and none of his predcessors had it. Ten Hag won two trophies and got sacked because the baseline expectation was still title challenges. Amorim was given three months measured against the same impossible standard. every manager since Moyes inherited the previous managers mess and was judged against a version of United that hasnt existed for over a decade. The gap between institutional expectation and actual capability is what killed all of them. Carrick benefits from that gap finally closing, not because hes better than the others but because the club has finaly stopped pretending its 2008.
The uncomfortable question is whether this recalibrated baseline is a foundation or a ceiling. The Brighton model the piece references is instructive, they cycle managers and maintain competitiveness without ever wining anything. Liverpool won everything under Klopp but thats because they found a generational figure who transcended the system he operated within. Model-first approaches produce consistent 75-80 point seasons. the jump from that to 90 points and a title has historicaly required a manager who is bigger than the model not one who serves it. Carrick can absolutely be the right appointment for the next two years while the boardroom does its work. but the title question eventually requires someone with the capacity to bend the system around their own vision, and thats a different job description entirely.
I’d disagree slightly. Before Carrick came in, stability and Champions League qualification were clearly seen as genuinely valuable outcomes in their own right. To take your example, Ten Hag did win two trophies, as you say, but finishing 8th in his second season meant he fell short of those broader measures of stability and Champions League qualification.
Good points.
I think the opportunity to run a 15 match audition with a new manager is just priceless. If only we could have done that with some of our previous appointments.
Amorim wouldn't have made it, 15 matches would have been long enough to see that his system was incompatible with the players we had. Ten Hag would have been gone because he only made things work by abandoning the playing style we hired him for. And we could all see from day one that Moyes was not the Ferguson successor we wanted him to be. Being Scottish was literally the only thing those two had in common. But anyway Carrick definitely passes. He won't be a disaster, we can be confident of that.
Great read, and I totally agree. Carrick seems to me a young, English Ancellotti, in the sense that he just makes obvious selections, picks players in their best positions, and keeps a happy atmosphere in camp. I'm not sure Carletto's ever done much more than that, and it's a winning recipe at superclubs. I suspect Carrick is better suited to United than Boro.
My only fear about next season is the extent of the recruitment that's required in midfield. With Casemiro leaving and Ugarte unwanted, Mainoo is left as the only midfielder we're comfortable starting, and as you've said on the podcast, he's not immune to injury. I hear people saying we'll sign one or two midfielders, but with all the extra fixtures it feels to me like we need four. I understand why people want different fullbacks, but I'd be happy with a midfield summer transfer market, much as we had a forward line market last summer.
Personally Carrick isnt for me. I didnt think United were very well coached under Ole with Carrick amd McKenna doimg the cpaching and he has nontrack recprd to speak of. Im also not a fan of Steve Holland coached England teams under Southgate, which Carricks United look eerily like. I personally would have gone for Iraola because fuck it, why not. I dont hate the Carrick hire but i feel we have been here before and suspect Carrick may not last the duration of his new contract. I hope i am wrong.
Unlike Ten Hag and Amorim, Carrick might be the perfect manager to match system to recruitment. Agree with your basic premise that his tactics have been boring, reasonable, unimaginative, etc., but building that way makes more sense than going all-in for the prior managers.
Sign good players that fit in multiple systems.
Good piece - the real test isn't in the dugout, it's in the recruitment
Would actual non-reactionary football literate fans really not get behind Alonso?
I know there's idiots in every large community but I feel like if a genuine United fan was against Alonso they need to give their head a wobble.
That said I left Manchester 15 years ago so I don't exactly have my finger on the pulse of real fans, just reddit morons from Ohio or wherever who call me a plastic for saying signing Ugarte would be a stupid move, so not the best measure.
I know it was right out anyway because he said he'll only ever manage for clubs he played for to not offend fans but Real Madrid are Real Sociedad's rivals after Athletic (more for what they represent historically and politically than in any real footballing sense) and he played for both and managed Madrid...
I'll take Carrick as a sort of low-risk roll to provide a semblance of sanity until we know what's what, but I won't like. I thought the game against Sunderland highlighted an issue that I can't decide is him or bad recruitment... a decent manager should be able cope with the absence of Casemiro against a side of that quality. I know the Prem is unlike the other leagues in sports and there's no bad sides but.... and that said we shouldn't be in the position where a 47yo Casemiro is the keystone to the entire game model.
I am as you also suggest more concerned with the recruitment going forward. I'd be more relaxed if I was in charge 'Cause of some 20 years of wonky mostly mid, frequently bad, sometimes good recruitment... I always expect them to snatch the transfer equivalent of defeat from the jaws of victory.... we'll see how this summer goes... but I guess that's kind of what you said too.
Mostly I'm just honestly glad the season is about to be over. If ever a year as a United fan could represent the word 'bleh' it's this one.
PS: I'll always stand behind my nomination of Alguacil (who is actually out of a job now) because I know I'm right. It's not my fault if my outside-the-box thinking is "too real" for mainstream football and they can't deal with me.
If my Twitter timeline is anything to go by, there aren’t very many non-reactionary football literate fans